NEW RIPPLE IN IRAN – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  An illness in Iran is casting a new shadow over the otherwise troubled nuclear negotiations, and over the future of the region.  From AP: 

Concerns over the health of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who reportedly suffers from prostate cancer, are mounting as the P5+1 and Tehran negotiate an agreement over Iran’s disputed nuclear program.

According to recent reports in the Iranian press, Khamenei may only have months left to live, The Telegraph reported on Sunday, and an ensuing power struggle between hardliners and moderates over Iran’s top role could derail talks currently taking place ahead of the June 30 target date.

In March, Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the clerics who appoint and can dismiss the country’s supreme leader, elected ultraconservative Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi as their new chairman.

According to the report, Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, a protege of Khamenei’s and a hardliner, has been positioning himself for the role, conducting purges of the more moderate potential candidates.

Larijani is the brother of Ali Larijani, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator and now chairman of the Iranian parliament, the Majlis.

A senior Western diplomat told the Telegraph that the West is now worried this power struggle could jeopardize the deal.

“With so many people jockeying for position, the hardliners will be tempted to prove their revolutionary credentials by vetoing any deal with the US,” he was quoted as saying. “The fear now is that this could jeopardize any progress we make in resolving the issue and lifting the sanctions.”

COMMENT:  The illness of the big guy also warns us that any agreement might be a farce to begin with.  A new leader could simply tear it up.  What would Field Marshal Obama actually do in that case?  Probably nothing, given his pro-Iranian attitudes. 

History works its strange ways, doesn't it?

June 15, 2015